The future of the GOP

With President-elect Obama's major victory and the Democratic gains in House and Senate, we will likely see a shake-up in the Republican party as they work to appeal to a larger portion of the electorate.

Here's my prediction- the Republican party will swing back towards the causes championed by the fiscal conservatives rather than the social conservatives, thus drawing back in a portion of the Libertarian vote (Ron Paul will have a hand in this, or at least be a target for assimilation by the Republican leadership even if he doesn't take part). A portion of the religious right will be so put out by being sidelined that they'll either form their own party or join another one as appropriate. Some of the evangelical leaders will even as independents, though this will be about as effective as the Green Party has been on a national level.

Two years from now: Democrats will retain a majority in house and senate, losses will be minimal if they exist at all. Republicans may make gains on the state level in several places across the country. Evangelical split will be beginning- at least two high profile races tracked by the networks will include one of the religious right candidates in addition to a Democrat and a Republican.

Four years from now: The Social/Fiscal conservative split will be well under way - Palin will be with the socials, of course. She will have a "party position", though likely not the candidate for president even though she'll run for it. Some other figure from the religious right will win their support and get approximately 5% of the popular vote in the general election. This will be enough to give Obama a second term as it eats into the base for the Republican candidate. Democrats will lose a few seats in the senate and house but retain a majority.

Eight years from now: The social and fiscal conservatives have tried to reconcile and made some limited success. Still the bruises and scabs from the hateful rhetoric of the past six to eight years will be difficult to fully heal from and the Democratic candidate will have an advantage going into the presidential election. Still, the pendulum will have started swinging back and it will be a tough fight. Some segment of the social conservatives will have splintered off and will be (pardon my French) absolutely bat-guana crazy. We'll all have a good laugh, though be scared at the same time.

I wouldn't bank money on this, and I haven't been around as long as other folks on this list probably have, certainly, but I think it's at least a reasonable starting prediction. Feel free to adapt and update based on the output from your crystal ball and tea leaf readings.

On debating: Palin's tactics

In last night's debate, Governor Palin decided that she could take a lifeline out at any time by simply deciding not to address the questions posed to her. Toward the beginning of the debate, she said, "And I may not answer the questions that either the moderator or you want to hear, but I'm going to talk straight to the American people."[1]

That is no way to have a debate. I'm one of those American people you mentioned, Governor Palin, and I would have been very interested to hear you address the deregulation question Senator Biden was discussing before the above quote, as well as a dozen other questions you decided to simply ignore.

Let's be very clear - as leaders of the free world, the president and vice president do not get to decide what issues to address. They are responsible for all of them. Playing ostrich and dodging issues you don't like is exactly what got us into the economic mess we're in. Pundits were saying you merely had to hold your own last night, but I believe you had to show you were capable of governing a nation after having governed a state with a population lower than that over a dozen cities in the lower 48 states. In that respect, you have failed to convince me you are ready to serve as vice president of the United States.

Moreover, your broad interpretation of the powers and duties of the office of the vice president are frightening and dangerous. As previously mentioned in "Ongoing Investigations", you consider yourself to be above the law. No citizen of the country is ever above the law, and no citizen in their right mind wants a vice president who puts themselves above the law. To directly quote:

IFILL: Governor, you mentioned a moment ago the constitution might give the vice president more power than it has in the past. Do you believe as Vice President Cheney does, that the Executive Branch does not hold complete sway over the office of the vice presidency, that it it is also a member of the Legislative Branch?

PALIN: Well, our founding fathers were very wise there in allowing through the Constitution much flexibility there in the office of the vice president. And we will do what is best for the American people in tapping into that position and ushering in an agenda that is supportive and cooperative with the president's agenda in that position. Yeah, so I do agree with him that we have a lot of flexibility in there, and we'll do what we have to do to administer very appropriately the plans that are needed for this nation.[1]

I think not, Governor Palin. Please reread our Constitution.

[1] Transcript of Palin, Biden debate

Ongoing investigations

According to CNN, Governor Sarah Palin "has halted her previously promised cooperation with the Legislature's investigation of the July dismissal of Public Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan". [1] Palin's husband Todd and several of her top aides have refused to comply with subpoenas, CNN reports.

On Fox News, they cover the story as well. Of particular note is a quote by Anchorage attorney Kevin G. Clarkson, who said, “There is no nonpartisan reason to complete this investigation until after the election." [2] One could just as easily argue that there is no nonpartisan reason to delay or interfere with the bipartisan investigation.

At this point, Governor Palin's reasons for firing the public safety commissioner has sadly become a secondary issue to the interference with the investigation. No citizen of the United States of America is above the law. When issued a subpeona, citizens are expected to appear in court, not complain of "an inconvenient travel schedule". [3]

Granted, there is much more to leading this nation than managing an enormous staff. However, it is crucial that in performing all of the other responsibilities of the office of the president or vice president that a citizen so honored with that position remember that he or she is still just a public servant, subject to all of the laws of the land.

[1] Republican lawmaker says Palin inquiry should go on
[2] Republican Lawmakers Sue to Stop Palin Inquiry
[3] Investigator: Palin probe to end before election

Lincoln Chafee sees grey regarding Sarah Palin

Over at The Washington Note there's an interview with former Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee from Rhode Island. Please take the six minutes to watch it here.

The key quote that makes us at Grey Politics repost is: "That's not in our long term best interests. It's a dangerous planet -- nuclear weapons -- a tremendous capacity of destruction exists. It's going to take some wisdom and ability to see gray sometimes, and lessons of the Cold War are that sometimes containment can work."

On Lipstick: An Open Letter to Senator John McCain

Senator McCain,

Shame on you. When Senator Obama said

"John McCain says he's about change, too - except for economic policy, health care policy, tax policy, education policy, foreign policy and Karl Rove-style politics. That's not change. That's just calling the same thing something different. You can put lipstick on a pig - it's still a pig."[1]

your first response should not have been to air a web ad claiming:

CHYRON: Barack Obama On: Sarah Palin
BARACK OBAMA: Well, you know, you can, you know you can...put...uh...lipstick on a pig...it's still a pig.[2]

From Barack Obama's remarks, it's clear he's referring to John McCain's policies.

Instead, your response should have been something along the lines of: "Senator Obama claims that our policies are no different from those of President Bush. He's wrong- here's what's different, here's what's the same, and why."

Misquoting, slandering, and phony outrage over a comment that John McCain himself has used[3] are horrible and shameful politics. Your attacks show me that your estimation of the average American's intelligence is approximately that of a pig wearing lipstick, or possibly a pit bull.

Please get back to the issues.

Sincerely,
Grey Politics

[1]The Caucus Blog
[2]John McCain's official campaign site
[3]YouTube video of McCain